Math Arguments

Trends in the Data

FiveThirtyEight had this graph
and the comment. "It looks to me as if Mr. Cain had been on a positive trajectory before, perhaps having moved up to about 28 percent of the Republican vote."




Is that blue trendline reasonable?

Some background information. From Wikipedia, "Cain ran as a Washington outsider and became a front-runner in the race in the fall of 2011. However, Cain's support plummeted after several women alleged that he had engaged in sexual harassment or, in one case, a 13-year extramarital affair. Cain and his wife unequivocally said the accusations were false, but Cain, citing the toll the allegations had taken on his family and his political support, suspended his campaign on December 3, 2011."

Cain died in August 2020, after contracting COVID-19 at a Trump rally.